Книга Законы эпидемий. Как развиваются и почему прекращаются эпидемии болезней, финансовые кризисы, вспышки насилия и модные тренды - Адам Кучарски
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Пример: https://twitter.com/brendannyhan/status/859573499333136384.
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Strudwick P.A., ‘Former MP Has Made A Heartfelt Apology For Voting Against Same-Sex Marriage’, BuzzFeed, 28 March 2017.
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По некоторым данным, пример человека, который изменил свою точку зрения и объяснил, почему он это сделал, может быть более убедительным, чем просто одностороннее сообщение. Источник: Lyons B.A. et al., ‘Conversion messages and attitude change: Strong arguments, not costly signals’, Public Understanding of Science, 2019.
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Feinberg M. and Willer R., ‘From Gulf to Bridge: When Do Moral Arguments Facilitate Political Influence?’, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 2015.
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Roghanizad M.M. and Bohns V.K., ‘Ask in person: You’re less persuasive than you think over email’, Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 2016.
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How J.J. and De Leeuw E.D., ‘A comparison of nonresponse in mail, telephone, and face-to-face surveys’, Quality and Quantity, 1994; Gerber A.S. and Green D.P., ‘The Effects of Canvassing, Telephone Calls, and Direct Mail on Voter Turnout: A Field Experiment’, American Political Science Review, 2000; Okdie B.M. et al., ‘Getting to know you: Face-to-face versus online interactions’, Computers in Human Behavior, 2011.
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Swire B. et al., ‘The role of familiarity in correcting inaccurate information’, Journal of Experimental Psychology Learning Memory and Cognition, 2017.
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Цитаты из интервью автора с Брайони Суайр-Томпсон, июль 2018 года.
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Broockman D. and Kalla J., ‘Durably reducing transphobia: A field experiment on door-to-door canvassing’, Science, 2016.
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Сведения и цитаты из интервью автора с Гэри Слаткином, апрель 2018 года.
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Статистика: Bentle K. et al., ‘39,000 homicides: Retracing 60 years of murder in Chicago’, Chicago Tribune, 9 January 2018; Illinois State Fact Sheet. National Injury and Violence Prevention Resource Center, 2015.
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Slutkin G., ‘Treatment of violence as an epidemic disease‘, In: Fine P. et al. John Snow’s legacy: epidemiology without borders. The Lancet, 2013.
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Об исследовании холеры Джоном Сноу: Snow J., On the mode of communication of cholera (London, 1855); Tulodziecki D., ‘A case study in explanatory power: John Snow’s conclusions about the pathology and transmission of cholera’, Studies in History and Philosophy of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, 2011; Hempel S., ‘John Snow’, The Lancet, 2013; Brody H. et al., ‘Map-making and myth-making in Broad Street: the London cholera epidemic, 1854’, The Lancet, 2000.
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Обоснования абстракции: Seuphor M., Piet Mondrian: Life and Work (Abrams, New York, 1956); Tate Modern, ‘Five ways to look at Malevich’s Black Square’, https://www.tate.org.uk/art/artists/kazimir-malevich-1561/five-ways-look-malevichs-black-square.
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О холере: Locher W.G., ‘Max von Pettenkofer (1818–1901) as a Pioneer of Modern Hygiene and Preventive Medicine’, Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine, 2007; Morabia A., ‘Epidemiologic Interactions, Complexity, and the Lonesome Death of Max von Pettenkofer,’ American Journal of Epidemiology, 2007.
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García-Moreno C. et al., ‘WHO Multi-country Study on Women’s Health and Domestic Violence against Women’, World Health Organization, 2005.
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Цитаты из интервью автора с Шарлоттой Уоттс, май 2018 года.
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Факторы, влияющие на заразность насилия: Patel D.M. et al., Contagion of Violence: Workshop Summary (National Academies Press, 2012).
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Gould M.S. et al., ‘Suicide Clusters: A Critical Review’, Suicide and Life-Threatening Behavior, 1989.
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Cheng Q. et al., ‘Suicide Contagion: A Systematic Review of Definitions and Research Utility’, PLOS ONE, 2014.
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Phillips D.P., ‘The Influence of Suggestion on Suicide: Substantive and Theoretical Implications of the Werther Effect’, American Sociological Review, 1974.
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WHO. ‘Is responsible and deglamourized media reporting effective in reducing deaths from suicide, suicide attempts and acts of selfharm?’, 2015. https://www.who.int.
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Fink D.S. et al., ‘Increase in suicides the months after the death of Robin Williams in the US’, PLOS ONE, 2018.
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Towers S. et al., ‘Contagion in Mass Killings and School Shootings’, PLOS ONE, 2015.
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Brent D.A. et al., ‘An Outbreak of Suicide and Suicidal Behavior in a High School’, Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, 1989.
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Aufrichtig A. et al., ‘Want to fix gun violence in America? Go local’, The Guardian, 9 January 2017.
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Цитаты из интервью автора с Чарли Рэнсфордом, апрель 2018 года.
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Confino J., ‘Guardian-supported Malawi sex workers’ project secures funding from Comic Relief ’, The Guardian, 9 June 2010.
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Bremer S., ‘10 Shot, 2 Fatally, at Vigil on Chicago’s Southwest Side’, NBC Chicago, 7 May 2017.
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Tracy M. et al., ‘The Transmission of Gun and Other Weapon-Involved Violence Within Social Networks’, Epidemiologic Reviews, 2016.
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Green B. et al., ‘Modeling Contagion Through Social Networks to Explain and Predict Gunshot Violence in Chicago, 2006 to 2014’, JAMA Internal Medicine, 2017.
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Сопоставив отрицательное биноминальное распределение вторичных событий с распределением размеров кластеров из Green et al., я получил оценку максимальной вероятности для дисперсионного параметра k = 0,096. (Метод из Blumberg S. and Lloyd-Smith J.O., PLOS Computational Biology, 2013.) Для сравнения: MERS-CoV имеет R = 0,63 и k = 0,25. (Из Kucharski A.J. and Althaus C.L., ‘The role of superspreading in Middle East
